Mainstreet poll: slight liberal advance
After spending the month of August tied with the Conservatives, at 34% of the voting intentions each, the federal Liberals have gained a slight lead of just over three points, according to the latest Mainstreet poll. However, it was not Andrew Scheer’s troops that took the vote, but the New Democrats (NDP), whose descent certainly does not seem to have a floor.
Theprobe gives 37.5% support for the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC) against 34% for the Conservative Party (PCC), after distribution of undecided (which represent 11% of respondents).
“This is Canada’s top score for the LPC in our 2019 polls,” said Luc Fortin of Mainstreet. So perhaps this is a sign that the SNC-Lavallin affair [ed: where Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould resigned in 2018 after being pressured by the PM’s office not to drag the firm SNC-Lavallin engineering before the courts in a corruption case] begins to be behind them. ”
The survey was conducted from September 6-8 among 1876 Canadian adults, and is considered accurate to within ± 2.3% 19 times out of 20.
The LPC already had a notable lead in Quebec and Ontario, and it seems to have dug a little deeper, now leading by 19 points (40 to 21) in the Belle Province and by 15 points (45 to 30) at our neighbours”. This is an important piece of information for the upcoming poll this fall, Fortin says, “because these two provinces send many members to the House of Commons.” With 78 and 121 seats respectively, Quebec and Ontario elect almost 60% of the federal deputy (338 ridings in total).
In Quebec, the Liberal gains were made at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, whose support has slipped 19 to 16% since the beginning of August, and to the detriment of the NDP in Ontario.
The Conservatives, however, can console themselves by thinking they have a solid 12-point advantage (37-25) over the Liberals in BC, and of course their Alberta and Prairie castles, where their advances exceed 25 points.
Note, however, that the margin of error is larger in regional sub-samples, which are smaller. We must therefore take these figures with additional caution.
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“Another thing we notice in this survey is that things are getting worse for the NDP, which is only 8%,” said Mr. Fortin. For the first time, New Democrats are fourth at both the national level and in Ontario. They are also fourth in British Columbia, even though their leader comes from that province, and fifth in Quebec. ”
Conversely, the Green Party is on the rise. While it was under 7% last fall, Elizabeth May’s training is almost 11% in the latest Mainstreet survey. “They have also won a partial since the fall and their funding is good,” says Fortin.
And they get 18% of the voting intentions in BC, ahead of the NDP (13%) and not so far behind the LPC (25%). “What we see in more accurate polls is that greens are very strong on Vancouver Island and in the cities,” says the pollster – a concentration of support that could help them elect some deputies.